Brent eyes $72 in crude's upward trek but further upside limited - 19 April 2019
- Brent closed at a fresh five-month peak of $71.97/barrel on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday holiday. It had flirted with $72 during intraday trading earlier in the week, but failed to breach that psychological mark.
- For the most part, the upward momentum stemmed from optimism over the direction of the US and Chinese economies. But is there a positive-news bias among investors? Though US and China continue to inch closer to a trade deal and Beijing reported surprisingly strong Q1 GDP data this week, there are plenty of pockets of decelerating economic growth across the world.
- It will be a complex set of factors that OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will need to measure and weigh when they meet towards the end of June to decide on their production policy for the second half of the year. We expect the cuts to be rolled over, but with a pledge to not exceed the agreed overall amount of reduction.
Also in this issue:
- Feb decline in OECD oil inventories in the spotlight
- Saudi-Russia differences on oil supply policy could grow
- Iran sanction waivers likely to continue
- Aramco makes a move on India’s Reliance Industries: the Saudi company’s formidable new avatar
- US shale growth is clearly slowing. The question is, to what extent?
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