Demand worries prevail over trade optimism, OPEC compliance pledges - 13 Sep 2019
- Is Donald Trump turning more pliable and willing to compromise on the international stage, perhaps with an eye on the 2020 presidential elections?
- It certainly seemed so from two of his big moves this week: He contemplated reducing Iran sanctions in a bid to get Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to the negotiating table, and delayed a planned hike in import tariffs against China as a “goodwill gesture”.
- But it’s Trump, the paragon of unpredictability. So, we will have to wait and watch.
- A breakthrough in the US-China trade war (finally) would be somewhat bullish for crude, while a rapprochement with Iran (unlikely) will be bearish.
- For the time being, the oil market remains in the grip of continuing downgrades in demand growth expectations, while non-OPEC supply is expected to continue climbing.
- Plus: Our key takeaways from this week’s Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore.
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