Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude slumps 7% after Trump says Israel, Iran agree ceasefire - June 24, 2025
Crude convulses with uncertainty as Israel-Iran war drags on - June 20, 2025
Crude has priced in a $12-14/barrel geopolitical risk premium amid the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting market anxiety over Middle East oil flows, though stopping short of worst-case pricing.
A potential US strike on Iran loomed large this week but was pulled back with President Donald Trump’s two-week detente offer, prompting Brent futures to retreat from fresh five-month highs above $78 as the week drew to a close. Prices may continue oscillating in the $72-78 range, swinging with each signal of escalation or de-escalation.
In this week’s report:
🔦 Spotlight: Israel-Iran Scenarios Mapped
We lay out three potential trajectories—worst-case, base case, and best-case -- each with probability bands and expected crude price impact.
Mildly bearish near-term and second-half April - April 2, 2025
After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we concluded:
Trump's Iran attack jolts markets but worst-case scenarios capped - June 22, 2025
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OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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