Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude flattish early Fri, shrugging off fresh Iran sanctions - Oct. 10, 2025
Brent probes mid-$60s floor as "glut watch" begins - Oct. 10, 2025
Brent steadied in the mid-$60s this week but remained vulnerable to downward pressure amid a pronounced negative bias from consensus expectations of an impending glut.
Futures and physical market signals that typically broadcast an over- or under-supply situation remained mixed, but sentiment was jittery as the week drew to a close.
Risk appetite in the broader financial markets wobbled this the week, with investors turning cautious over the US equities rally, gold zooming to all-time highs above $4,000/oz only to slide back, the US dollar firming, and Fed expectations being realigned to data-dependent quarter-point cuts, not an aggressive easing path.
Ray Dalio, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Jamie Dimon, Jeremy Grantham, and Mark Spitznagel -- along with the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England – have delivered essentially the same message in recent days: Stocks look pricey and crowded, debt is heavy, and geopolitics are messy. In plain English, the market’s on thin ice. A sharp pullback could be the trigger for crude’s downward spiral too.
Sep 2025: Mildly bullish near-term, mildly bullish H2 Oct - Sept. 26, 2025
Oil market sentiment after weighing all the factors in our latest Bulls & Bears report:
Trump's Iran attack jolts markets but worst-case scenarios capped - June 22, 2025
Mideast tensions surged after the US hit Iran’s three main nuclear sites in a pre-dawn strike Sunday, marking a sharp reversal from President Trump’s earlier two-week diplomatic window.
Brent could briefly jump above $80/bbl at Monday’s open, but a quick pullback is likely as markets reassess the escalation risk.
Despite fiery rhetoric, Iran’s actual response appears measured. We do not expect a near-term blockade of Hormuz or strikes on Gulf producers’ oil assets, keeping worst-case risks contained.
Trump’s “one-and-done” signal and Tehran’s continued openness to talks raise the odds of resumed nuclear negotiations — potentially easing the $12–14/bbl risk premium, though volatility will stay elevated.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.
