Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
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Crude under renewed pressure after underwhelming US-China pact - Oct. 31, 2025
Crude's mild response to Russia sanctions shows risk capped, for now - Oct. 24, 2025
This week we break down the new US blocking sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil (on top of January’s moves against Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz), which directly target 40-50% of Russia’s ~6.7 mb/d oil exports.
Despite the shock headline, crude’s reaction was muted: Brent rebounded from around $61 to around $66–67, indicating nerves, not panic.
Markets are leaning on workarounds and the possibility of diplomacy, but that complacency could blunt pressure on Moscow even as “maximum pressure” risks a price backlash that Washington wants to avoid.
Oversupply talk will likely reassert if Ukraine tensions ease, yet we don’t see that pushing Brent through the $50s; our balances show excess in Q4-Q1, not a “glut.”
We’ve unpacked price moves, market expectations, and the road ahead after this week’s sanctions in a concise, easy-to-digest FAQ format.
Sanctions raise friction and discounts rather than an immediate collapse in flows; policy outcomes and enforcement intensity are the swing factors. Trade headlines (US-India; potentially US-China) matter at the margin, but only a US-China breakthrough would be materially supportive for crude near term.
Nov 2025: Mildly bearish near-term, mildly bearish second-half Nov - Oct. 31, 2025
Our reading of market sentiment after weighing all the bullish and bearish factors:
Rosneft, Lukoil sanctions: Market nervous, not panicked - Oct. 23, 2025
Brent is up ~$3/bbl (~5%) on sweeping US sanctions that now cover Russia’s last major oil exporters, but price action remains measured.
We see Trump leveraging sanctions to push de-escalation, while Chinese/Indian refiners move into precautionary mode and term buyers assess force-majeure options.
Near term, expect firmer backwardation, stronger Middle East grades, and diesel cracks leading the products complex.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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