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Crude edges up, finding some buying support at 8-week lows - Dec. 12, 2025
Crude stuck in neutral as Ukraine peace efforts falter - Nov. 28, 2025
The excited anticipation generated by US President Donald Trump resuscitating the Ukraine peace plan last week – seemingly with new vigour, strategy tweaks and fresh faces fronting it – faded away this week, leaving the oil market in limbo.
The initial US proposition, a 28-point framework, did not live up to its hype and within days had mutated into a 19-point plan – in the process swinging from a pro-Russian stance to a more pro-Ukrainian position.
Both Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin are in considerably weaker positions – for their own reasons, beyond the sheer shared fatigue of a war that will have raged for four years in February. But neither is backing down on the key demands that have been stumbling blocks in previous peace efforts.
For the oil market, a whole bunch of important questions that were demanding answers about what a post-war scenario might mean for Russian flows have been tucked back into the drawer for now. We have views on that world, of course, but will keep them for when there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
For now, it is “keep calm and carry on”. That’s exactly what crude also did this week, with activity further subdued by the US Thanksgiving holiday.
Accordingly, we too have gone more succinct in this issue – two pages of “In a nutshell” bullet points that will bring you up to speed on everything that mattered at a high level.
Dec 2025: Neutral near-term, neutral second-half Dec - Dec. 5, 2025
Our latest Bulls & Bears report maintains a neutral stance for both the coming week and the second half of December, with crude expected to remain tightly rangebound around current levels.
Rosneft, Lukoil sanctions: Market nervous, not panicked - Oct. 23, 2025
Brent is up ~$3/bbl (~5%) on sweeping US sanctions that now cover Russia’s last major oil exporters, but price action remains measured.
We see Trump leveraging sanctions to push de-escalation, while Chinese/Indian refiners move into precautionary mode and term buyers assess force-majeure options.
Near term, expect firmer backwardation, stronger Middle East grades, and diesel cracks leading the products complex.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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