CRUDE IN SIGHT

Crude marginally higher Mon after more Russian refineries attacked - March 25, 2024

  • Crude futures were trading slightly higher Monday afternoon in Asia after the Ukraine rained drones on several Russian refineries in Samara over the weekend. One of the drones hit Rosneft’s 140,000 b/d Kuibyshev refinery, causing a fire.
  • A US-proposed UN resolution calling for an “immediate ceasefire” and hostage deal in Gaza circulated on Thursday was vetoed by Russia and China over the weekend. However, a new draft resolution, also calling for an “immediate” ceasefire, was due to be put to vote in the UN Security Council on Monday.

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OIL VIEWSLETTER

Crude rally pauses to reassess risk premium but supply worries remain - March 22, 2024

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BULLS & BEARS

Mar 2024: Mildly bearish near-term; neutral for April - March 15, 2024

After weighing all the bullish and bearish influences on crude, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:

  • MILDLY BEARISH sentiment for the near-term (second-half March) 
  • NEUTRAL sentiment for April

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EXECUTIVE BRIEFING NOTES

US shale bending to new pressure, Exxon-Pioneer deal shows - Oct. 17, 2023

ExxonMobil’s $60-billion deal to buy rival shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources marks yet another phase of reorganization in the US shale sector, as it adapts once again to some big changes in its business environment.

The last major wave that forced shale to turn over a new leaf was in 2018, when investors and shareholders began enforcing capital discipline on the drillers. That mantra has stuck. Meanwhile, a trend accelerating now may see an industry pioneered by hundreds of small, independent drillers becoming consolidated in the hands of far fewer and bigger players over the next few years. In short, shale now needs economies of scale.

From a global oil markets macro perspective, one of the persistent key questions is whether, given shale’s resilience and adaptability, there is a chance that the US may reclaim its role as a swing producer at some point.

We examine that angle against the backdrop of other major shifts shaping the shale sector in this special report.

ENERGY RADAR

OIL IN 2024: Easing demand to weigh on crude, test OPEC+ unity - Dec. 22, 2023

As oil market participants turn the page into 2024, they are contemplating a picture of a global economic slowdown crimping demand growth, even as robust output growth from the US and a few other producers outside the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance tilt the balance towards oversupply.

Questions are swirling around the survival of OPEC+ and its supply management strategy in the face of new challenges awaiting it in the coming months. As Angola’s decision to quit OPEC this week shows, under the veneer of cohesion in the 22-member group, cracks are likely widening, especially on account of members who have lost substantial production capacity after effecting the deepest cuts ever through the Covid-induced demand destruction.

What else does the crystal ball show for the oil market in 2024? Sweet crude prices averaged 18% lower this year, bringing relief from last year’s 40% annual jump. What might next year look like?

We highlight the key elements to keep an eye on and take a closer look at the characteristics of the three main components of next year’s market: Supply, Demand and the Economy.