Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude opens stable on Mon after Fri's trek to two-week highs - Dec. 30, 2024
Crude stuck in torpor amid feeble cues, 2025 uncertainties - Dec. 20, 2024
The oil market appears to have checked out for the holiday season. Brent has been stuck in a $71-76/barrel band for the past eight weeks and may well slide sideways into the year-end.
There are no strong cues from supply-demand fundamentals to blast prices out of their current range, the geopolitical risk premium that ebbed and flowed through 2024 remains firmly tucked away despite three simmering wars, and the approach of 2025 is fostering a growing sense of economic uncertainty, not in the least because of the radical trade policies of incoming US President Donald Trump.
If you are already in holiday mode or about to enter it, you will be happy to know today’s Oil Viewsletter is an even quicker read than usual, at two pages. It encapsulates all the key elements of the market this week that you need to know. If we have left out some elements you came across in your daily news flow, it is either because they do not matter in the big picture, which is what we bring to you, or are just noise.
Dec 2024: Neutral near-term, mildly bearish end-Dec/earlyJan - Dec. 13, 2024
After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we conclude:
US joins a battlefield of paper tigers with new Iran oil sanctions - April 24, 2024
This is our second Executive Briefing Note in a week. This publication is designed to provide prompt and succinct views on major market developments outside the cycle of our regular weekly report, the Oil Viewsletter.
The US Senate, the upper house of the Congress, late-Tuesday passed a package of bills that includes a “Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum” or SHIP Act, which expands secondary sanctions against Iranian oil exports by targeting ports, ships and refiners that facilitate the transfer of or process oil from the Islamic Republic. The House had passed the bill last Saturday and President Joe Biden is expected to sign it in the coming hours.
What impact might this Act have on Iran’s 3 million b/d of crude production and 1.3-1.5 million b/d of crude exports? Probably none, in our assessment. Which is why we call it the third paper tiger in the Israel-US-Iran geopolitical battle.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.
