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Crude reverts to rangebound trading amid absence of catalysts - July 17, 2025
Bearish fundamentals to outweigh Iran-driven crude support - July 4, 2025
The oil market may have become a bit quiet but there’s no shortage of moving parts — and we’ve unpacked all of them in this week’s Oil Viewsletter.
The headline-grabbing Iran flare-up gave crude a mid-week lift, but we explain why that pop was overdone — and why the market is learning to price Middle East risks more rationally. With the US back in indirect nuclear talks and Tehran softening its messaging, the fresh bout of geopolitical premium is already looking shaky.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ Group of 8 continues its accelerated output ramp-up. Despite some underperformance in May, the June numbers suggest the group is catching up quickly — and the idea that members are holding back deliberately just doesn’t hold water.
We also take a close look at the US macro landscape: The dollar is slipping, but crude isn’t taking the cue, as their positive correlation holds firm. And while Trump’s tax-and-spend bill may lift sentiment on Wall Street, it does little for oil fundamentals.
The upshot: Geopolitics may cause the odd headline jolt, but the market’s focus is squarely on supply, demand, and macro — and that spells a firmly bearish tone in the near term.
Jul 2025: Mildly bearish near-term, neutral H2 July - July 3, 2025
📉 Near-term sentiment (next week): Mildly bearish.
Brent's knee-jerk rally on Iran halting IAEA cooperation looks overdone. The market has seen this movie before — unless tensions escalate sharply, the geopolitical risk premium is likely to fade as quickly as it flared. With no real threat to Mideast oil supply, traders may unwind gains and return to rangebound trading. Traders likely built precautionary long positions ahead of the long US July 4 weekend, but we expect unwinding to set in next week, if not by tomorrow.
⚖️ Rest of July: Neutral overall.
We expect a balancing act: seasonal demand and low US stock levels may offer price support, but there are no strong bullish drivers. On the flip side, sluggish macro indicators, a weak recovery in business activity post-tariff disruptions, and the continued unwinding of OPEC+ cuts lean bearish.
Trump's Iran attack jolts markets but worst-case scenarios capped - June 22, 2025
Mideast tensions surged after the US hit Iran’s three main nuclear sites in a pre-dawn strike Sunday, marking a sharp reversal from President Trump’s earlier two-week diplomatic window.
Brent could briefly jump above $80/bbl at Monday’s open, but a quick pullback is likely as markets reassess the escalation risk.
Despite fiery rhetoric, Iran’s actual response appears measured. We do not expect a near-term blockade of Hormuz or strikes on Gulf producers’ oil assets, keeping worst-case risks contained.
Trump’s “one-and-done” signal and Tehran’s continued openness to talks raise the odds of resumed nuclear negotiations — potentially easing the $12–14/bbl risk premium, though volatility will stay elevated.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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