CRUDE IN SIGHT

Crude in rally mode after 6-7% jump as US-Iran standoff worsens - April 30, 2026

  • Futures price in extended Hormuz standoff, fears of return to war
  • Just in: US pitches new coalition to get ships moving again
  • US turns net crude exporter for first time in week ended April 24
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OIL VIEWSLETTER

Crude clings to Iran risk premium as talks set to drag on - Feb. 27, 2026

In this week’s Oil Viewsletter, we cut through the noise on US-Iran tensions and lay out what actually matters for oil markets:

  • $8/barrel Iran premium embedded in Brent – Talks in Geneva made incremental progress, but a deal remains distant, keeping risk firmly priced in near seven-month highs.
  • We reject the worst-case hysteria – A major, supply-disrupting war is a tail risk. We focus instead on probabilities, not headlines.
  • We lay out four clear scenarios, with probabilities and price impact.
  • Why diplomacy will take time – The “zero enrichment” vs. sanctions relief gap is wide; technical and political tracks are only just aligning.
  • Limits to gunboat diplomacy – Tehran has not “capitulated” despite military pressure, and Washington faces political and operational constraints of its own.
  • Markets hostage to rhetoric – Direction now hinges less on fundamentals and more on President Trump’s tone, messaging and perceived intent.

 

  • Middle East front-loading is not bearish – Saudi and UAE export surges reflect hedging, not structural supply growth.
  • Freight markets flashing stress – VLCC rates near $200,000/day amplify volatility and reinforce geopolitical sensitivity.

Bottom line: geopolitics — not supply-demand balances — is setting the tape, and volatility is likely to persist while negotiations stretch into the coming weeks.

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BULLS & BEARS

Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026

After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:

  • A Mildly Bullish near-term bias
  • Neutral stance for the first half of March

 

 

 

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EXECUTIVE BRIEFING NOTES

Hormuz stalemate masks market shock from UAE's OPEC exit - April 29, 2026

  • UAE’s shock exit marks a structural break in OPEC/OPEC+, raising questions over the durability of coordinated supply management. 
  • No immediate market impact: Hormuz disruption caps UAE exports, deferring any meaningful supply increase despite spare capacity claims. 
  • Geopolitics driving price support: Prolonged US-Iran standoff keeps a risk premium embedded, with several more weeks of disruption likely.
  • The real test is whether Saudi Arabia and Russia can hold the group together -- or if this accelerates a broader breakdown.

 

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OIL RADAR

OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025

Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.

2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.

Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.

We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:

  • Unusually high oil-on-water and record oil in transit -- a sanctions-era dislocation, not a Covid-style contango replay
  • Rare net-short speculative positioning, pointing to a more two-sided, tactical market -- prone to both air-pockets and squeezes
  • Atlantic refining margins converging while Asia stays squeezed, implying tougher Asian competition and continued pull for Atlantic exports

If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.

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