Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude in holding pattern with US, Iran at odds over Hormuz control - July 3, 2026
Crude grinds lower in the shadow of a muddled Hormuz reopening - July 3, 2026
In this week's Oil Viewsletter:
Crude has returned to pre-war levels — but is the market underestimating the risks? We explain why Hormuz's reopening remains far from complete, or straightforward.
The real battle has shifted from the battlefield to the negotiating table. We examine the emerging US, Iranian, Omani and GCC positions on the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Iran are competing aggressively to place returning barrels. We assess who is gaining the upper hand as Persian Gulf exports recover.
Russia's refinery outages are creating an unusual paradox: domestic fuel shortages but record crude exports, adding further pressure to an already oversupplied Asian market.
ADNOC rewrites the rulebook — again. We take an in-depth look at its proposal to switch Upper Zakum, Das and Umm Lulu pricing from Murban to Dubai, and what it means for the Gulf crude markets.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Exit of stranded Gulf barrels tilts prompt market into surplus (26 June 2026) - June 26, 2026
In our latest Executive Briefing Note:
Stranded Persian Gulf crude is pushing the prompt market into surplus as Brent, Dubai, Oman and Murban flip into front-end contango.
Hormuz is reopening, but drone attacks, mine clearance and competing Iranian-Omani transit rules continue to cloud the outlook.
We estimate 250-300 million barrels of Gulf crude could hit the market over the coming weeks. But this should not be mistaken for the new normal. The real test will come when empty tankers can re-enter the Gulf, load, and exit the Strait at full capacity without disruption.
Record Russian crude flows to India and weak Chinese buying are amplifying prompt bearishness.
Diesel markets remain tight, suggesting the weakness is confined to crude rather than broader oil fundamentals.
Plus: Iraq's OPEC warning, the UAE's post-OPEC strategy, and why Hormuz governance could become the next geopolitical flashpoint.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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