Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude flat early Wed amid holiday lull, steady sentiment - Dec. 24, 2025
Brent slips below $60 but stubborn risk premium checks the sell-off - Dec. 19, 2025
Crude’s brief bounce from near five-year lows faded late week after Brent’s sub-$60 break — but supply-risk headlines are still setting the tone.
On Venezuela, Trump’s sanctioned-tanker “blockade” added a risk premium as flows in and out of the country were disrupted, but the broader endgame remains unclear.
On Ukraine, diplomacy is active but core red lines haven’t moved; talk of additional US sanctions resurfaced this week, but looks unlikely for now. The EU bought Kyiv some time by agreeing a €90bn funding package but the frozen-assets route remains stuck, with implications for Ukraine’s war effort.
Russian crude exports and discounts remain under pressure following the latest round of US-EU sanctions, with early-December seaborne arrivals showing India curtailing purchases far more sharply than China.
Short-term oil-on-sea has continued to ease from late-November highs. The “glut” narrative remains intact, but this week it weighed much more on the back end than the front of the crude forward curve.
Dec 2025: Neutral near-term, neutral second-half Dec - Dec. 5, 2025
Our latest Bulls & Bears report maintains a neutral stance for both the coming week and the second half of December, with crude expected to remain tightly rangebound around current levels.
Rosneft, Lukoil sanctions: Market nervous, not panicked - Oct. 23, 2025
Brent is up ~$3/bbl (~5%) on sweeping US sanctions that now cover Russia’s last major oil exporters, but price action remains measured.
We see Trump leveraging sanctions to push de-escalation, while Chinese/Indian refiners move into precautionary mode and term buyers assess force-majeure options.
Near term, expect firmer backwardation, stronger Middle East grades, and diesel cracks leading the products complex.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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