Crude inches up early Fri, in search of bottom after bout of sell-off - Feb. 3, 2023

  • Benchmark sweet crude futures were trekking higher early Friday in Asia but lacked strong momentum, signalling a tentative search for a bottom after nearly five consecutive sessions of declines.
  • The US dollar bounced up from seven-and-a-half-month lows on Thursday, likely exerting some downward pressure on crude.
  • Wednesday’s Energy Information Administration report showing a substantial build in US crude and refined product stocks in the week ended January 27 also continued to weigh on prices.



Crude bubbles up in a glass half-empty - Jan. 27, 2023

It’s a topsy-turvy world, a bit like Alice’s Wonderland!

The curious tug-of-war between a hawkish US Federal Reserve and money managers that insist on calling it dovish continues, adding to the confusion from all the mixed signals on the health of the major economies around the world. Risk assets surge on the back of waves of optimism in the broader financial markets, and subside when doubts resurface. Crude rises and falls in tandem. 

In today’s report, we discuss:

  • Are the Fed pivot optimists wearing rose-tinted glasses?
  • The inflation feedback loop that may come back to bite 
  • Feb 5 EU ban on Russian products is not all that it seems
  • OPEC+ likely to sit tight 
  • Speculators are back, laying bullish bets on crude futures