Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
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Crude trades mostly sideways, lacking reason to break out of range - June 27, 2025
Staged Mideast calm sends crude back into comfort zone - June 27, 2025
After all the fireworks, calm — at least on the surface. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, Brent has snapped back into its pre-war comfort zone and could become rangebound once again in the $64-68 bracket.
The geopolitical risk premium has rapidly unwound, and oil traders are back to watching broader economic signals. But crude remains stubbornly decoupled from the bullish mood driving US equities near record highs — and that disconnect is telling.
📌 At Vanda Insights, we once again kept readers on the right track.
Our base case in last Friday’s Oil Viewsletter — Ceasefire followed by a limbo — and our forecast that last Sunday’s US strikes on Iran would cause crude to gap up at Monday’s open but quickly retreat due to the lack of real escalation in supply risk played out exactly as expected.
Special in today’s edition:
TRUMP’S DUBIOUS IRAN VICTORY LAP.
The US president was quick to declare the Iranian nuclear threat neutralised after the B-2 bomber strikes, calling a new deal unnecessary. But leaked US intelligence and European assessments paint a different picture — one where Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile likely survived and the real threat may only be delayed, not defused.
Plenty to dig into — and as always, we welcome your thoughts.
Mildly bearish near-term and second-half April - April 2, 2025
After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we concluded:
Trump's Iran attack jolts markets but worst-case scenarios capped - June 22, 2025
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OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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