Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude slumps as US stock-build triggers profit-taking - May 15, 2025
OPEC+ pivot to limit crude's upside from US trade detentes - May 10, 2025
Brent futures were flung to four-year lows near $60/barrel on May 5 as the OPEC+ Group of 8’s decision to continue an accelerated unwinding of production cuts in June added fresh momentum to the previous week’s anticipatory sell-off.
Prices did claw back with a 6% gain at Friday’s settle on the back of cautious optimism of détente in markets bruised by Trump’s tariffs turmoil, driven in large part by the prospect of the US and China initiating trade talks and pre-emptively de-escalating tensions by ratcheting down their eye-watering import tariffs against each other.
Still, the US-China trade standoff is highly complex and may take time to resolve. Meanwhile, the trade deal announced on Thursday with the UK and a bunch of others Washington claims are forthcoming offer little to shift oil sentiment. But that’s not the only reason we expect crude prices to face upside resistance in the near term.
A major bearish force locked in for the coming months is the OPEC+ G8’s rush to restore the 2.2 million b/d of production withheld from the market instead of spacing it out over 18 months as agreed in March this year.
Mildly bearish near-term and second-half April - April 2, 2025
After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we concluded:
US' tough new Russia oil sanctions may have a short shelf life - Jan. 12, 2025
The Biden administration took oil market players by surprise on Friday by announcing the most expansive sanctions yet against Russia’s oil sector.
We suspect it was not only the oil market; the US’ European Union allies across the pond may have also been caught unawares – we couldn’t find a single reaction from any of the region’s leaders! The UK, for what it is worth, joined the US, simultaneously announcing sanctions against Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegas,
It was curious to see Biden fire the bazooka just 10 days before handing over charge to Donald Trump, who is clearly going to have a vastly different approach to resolving the Ukraine war.
What does the upcoming change of guard in the US say for the durability of the latest round of sanctions and crude’s 4% spike on Friday? Our succinct insights in this report.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.
