Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude tumbles after Trump backs away from strikes on Iran - Jan. 15, 2026
Oil starts 2026 in a fog of geopolitical uncertainty - Jan. 9, 2026
2026 has opened with geopolitics firmly back in the driver’s seat for oil markets.
The first week has already shown how swiftly headline shocks can reset the market’s supply-risk premium.
From Venezuela’s fragile transition and renewed Russia sanctions brinkmanship to a simmering Iran tail risk, the market is navigating a familiar but thickening fog.
In this Oil Viewsletter, we unpack what has changed, what remains contained -- for now -- and the key inflection points that could reshape the supply risk calculus in the weeks ahead.
Dec 2025: Neutral near-term, neutral second-half Dec - Dec. 5, 2025
Our latest Bulls & Bears report maintains a neutral stance for both the coming week and the second half of December, with crude expected to remain tightly rangebound around current levels.
Trump's Venezuela gambit: Big political risk, modest oil impact for now - Jan. 4, 2026
Trump took a bold risk in sending US troops into Caracas over the weekend, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores, and transferring them to the US to face longstanding criminal charges.
He may also have taken on an impossible task in pledging to “run” Venezuela until a safe and orderly transition to a democratically elected government is in place. Venezuela’s Supreme Court has ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to assume interim presidential powers, while Washington is racing to shape a workable interim setup. Pushback from Maduro’s allies cannot be ruled out.
While the political situation is likely to remain in flux for months, with plenty of scope for messy outcomes, the near-term oil market equation is less complicated. We expect crude to come face mild bearish pressure as Venezuelan production and exports, disrupted by US blockades in recent weeks, begin to normalise.
Longer-term, Trump has promised American companies will invest “billions of dollars” to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil sector. But even if everything goes to plan, meaningful gains are far down the line.
Read our quick analysis of the latest development and their implications for oil in this Executive Briefing Note.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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