Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude softens as Trump announces Ukraine-Russia 'energy ceasefire' - Oct. 12, 2026
Hormuz flow recovery may carry the seeds of its own reversal - Oct. 2, 2026
The renewed US-Iran diplomatic push appears to have hit a wall again. Yet crude flows through Hormuz have continued to recover, helped by US military support for vessels using the Omani corridor and increasingly sophisticated workarounds by Gulf producers.
There are legitimate doubts around estimates this week — prominently from two Wall Street banks — putting the recovery in regional crude flows at 80-90% or more of pre-war levels. Different methodologies and dark transits muddy the picture. But there appears to be a broad consensus that traffic through the US-supervised Omani corridor has picked up substantially.
That raises an increasingly important question: with diplomacy faltering and one of Tehran’s principal sources of leverage being steadily eroded, why should we expect Iran to tolerate the continued recovery in flows?
Meanwhile, the global diesel crunch is tightening its grip, with Russia and China restricting exports and governments scrambling for relief valves.
In today’s Oil Viewsletter, we examine why the oil market’s latest sources of comfort could prove short-lived.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Exit of stranded Gulf barrels tilts prompt market into surplus (26 June 2026) - June 26, 2026
In our latest Executive Briefing Note:
Stranded Persian Gulf crude is pushing the prompt market into surplus as Brent, Dubai, Oman and Murban flip into front-end contango.
Hormuz is reopening, but drone attacks, mine clearance and competing Iranian-Omani transit rules continue to cloud the outlook.
We estimate 250-300 million barrels of Gulf crude could hit the market over the coming weeks. But this should not be mistaken for the new normal. The real test will come when empty tankers can re-enter the Gulf, load, and exit the Strait at full capacity without disruption.
Record Russian crude flows to India and weak Chinese buying are amplifying prompt bearishness.
Diesel markets remain tight, suggesting the weakness is confined to crude rather than broader oil fundamentals.
Plus: Iraq's OPEC warning, the UAE's post-OPEC strategy, and why Hormuz governance could become the next geopolitical flashpoint.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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