CRUDE IN SIGHT

Crude ticks up, pushing Brent above $79, as Mideast war drags on - March 3, 2026

  • Brent futures climbed more than 1%, vaulting back above $79 at the start of Asian trading on Tuesday, as the Middle East war entered its fourth day and markets absorbed signals from Washington on Monday that the conflict could stretch on for weeks.
  • Tanker tracking data continues to show a notable build-up of crude and product tonnage waiting outside the region, with some opting for alternate routes.
  • The US administration will announce measures on Tuesday to address the oil price spike from the Iran conflict, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
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OIL VIEWSLETTER

Crude clings to Iran risk premium as talks set to drag on - Feb. 27, 2026

In this week’s Oil Viewsletter, we cut through the noise on US-Iran tensions and lay out what actually matters for oil markets:

  • $8/barrel Iran premium embedded in Brent – Talks in Geneva made incremental progress, but a deal remains distant, keeping risk firmly priced in near seven-month highs.
  • We reject the worst-case hysteria – A major, supply-disrupting war is a tail risk. We focus instead on probabilities, not headlines.
  • We lay out four clear scenarios, with probabilities and price impact.
  • Why diplomacy will take time – The “zero enrichment” vs. sanctions relief gap is wide; technical and political tracks are only just aligning.
  • Limits to gunboat diplomacy – Tehran has not “capitulated” despite military pressure, and Washington faces political and operational constraints of its own.
  • Markets hostage to rhetoric – Direction now hinges less on fundamentals and more on President Trump’s tone, messaging and perceived intent.

 

  • Middle East front-loading is not bearish – Saudi and UAE export surges reflect hedging, not structural supply growth.
  • Freight markets flashing stress – VLCC rates near $200,000/day amplify volatility and reinforce geopolitical sensitivity.

Bottom line: geopolitics — not supply-demand balances — is setting the tape, and volatility is likely to persist while negotiations stretch into the coming weeks.

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BULLS & BEARS

Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026

After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:

  • A Mildly Bullish near-term bias
  • Neutral stance for the first half of March

 

 

 

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EXECUTIVE BRIEFING NOTES

Brent oscillates in $77-80 band as Mideast war intensifies - March 2, 2026

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OIL RADAR

OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025

Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.

2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.

Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.

We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:

  • Unusually high oil-on-water and record oil in transit -- a sanctions-era dislocation, not a Covid-style contango replay
  • Rare net-short speculative positioning, pointing to a more two-sided, tactical market -- prone to both air-pockets and squeezes
  • Atlantic refining margins converging while Asia stays squeezed, implying tougher Asian competition and continued pull for Atlantic exports

If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.

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