Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
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Brent slips below $90 on renewed expectations of US-Iran deal - June 12, 2026
Crude clings to Iran risk premium as talks set to drag on - Feb. 27, 2026
In this week’s Oil Viewsletter, we cut through the noise on US-Iran tensions and lay out what actually matters for oil markets:
Bottom line: geopolitics — not supply-demand balances — is setting the tape, and volatility is likely to persist while negotiations stretch into the coming weeks.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
US-Iran deal back in sight, but the hard part lies ahead - June 12, 2026
The stars appear to be aligning for a US-Iran MoU that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
We think this week's carefully choreographed military escalation may have actually been a precursor to a deal. The strikes give both sides a narrative to claim victory and present the same agreement as a capitulation by the other.
Crude has already priced in much of the expected relief, but the market may be underestimating the risks that lie beyond the reopening of Hormuz.
The real test would come during a proposed 30- or 60-day period of nuclear negotiations between two parties that both believe they hold the upper hand.
A deal may end the immediate crisis. It is unlikely to end the volatility.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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