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Crude continues to firm as US, Iran locked in renewed warfare - Sept. 1, 2026
Leaky Hormuz keeps lid on crude, but stalemate puts flows at risk - Aug. 28, 2026
Four weeks after signalling they were close, Iran and Oman have yet to seal their temporary Strait of Hormuz transit arrangement -- but that hardly matters any more. Tehran continues to insist that a broader reopening of the waterway remains contingent on Washington accepting its demands, ranging from lifting the naval blockade and oil sanctions, to ending the regional wars.
But President Donald Trump appears to have veered away from diplomacy, this week spurning the idea of resuming negotiations with Iran or returning to the June 17 MoU. “I am not in a hurry. I have no time schedule at all,” he said, alluding to expectations in Washington that sustained and intensified economic pressure on Tehran will eventually force it to buckle.
Over the second and third weeks of August, when the Oil Viewsletter was on a publishing holiday, Brent crude hovered in a narrow range between the high-$80s and low-$90s as the US and Iran remained locked in a stalemate.
Prices hugged the lower end of that range this week as a steady stream of Persian Gulf crude continued to escape through the Strait of Hormuz — with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait joining the “shuttle runs” pioneered by the UAE to offer cargoes for loading in the relative safety of the Gulf of Oman.
It’s a source of relief for the market, but how long can Tehran be expected to continue looking the other way while it reels economically under the US blockade and is denied a path back to the MoU?
Unfortunately, if Trump remains adamant, another kinetic flare-up triggered by an increasingly frustrated Tehran may be the only way to break the current impasse.
Meanwhile, an end to the global refined products crunch — exacerbated by the loss of Middle Eastern barrels on top of the shuttered Russian refining capacity — appears even farther down the road.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Exit of stranded Gulf barrels tilts prompt market into surplus (26 June 2026) - June 26, 2026
In our latest Executive Briefing Note:
Stranded Persian Gulf crude is pushing the prompt market into surplus as Brent, Dubai, Oman and Murban flip into front-end contango.
Hormuz is reopening, but drone attacks, mine clearance and competing Iranian-Omani transit rules continue to cloud the outlook.
We estimate 250-300 million barrels of Gulf crude could hit the market over the coming weeks. But this should not be mistaken for the new normal. The real test will come when empty tankers can re-enter the Gulf, load, and exit the Strait at full capacity without disruption.
Record Russian crude flows to India and weak Chinese buying are amplifying prompt bearishness.
Diesel markets remain tight, suggesting the weakness is confined to crude rather than broader oil fundamentals.
Plus: Iraq's OPEC warning, the UAE's post-OPEC strategy, and why Hormuz governance could become the next geopolitical flashpoint.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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