Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Brent hits $96 as Red Sea tanker attacks worsen supply disruption - July 23, 2026
Market holds out hope for diplomacy as US, Iran lock horns again - July 17, 2026
The US and Iran steadily escalated military hostilities this week, but oil markets stopped well short of panicking. Despite commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slipping back towards a near standstill, Brent remained comfortably below $90/bbl, reflecting expectations that the current impasse will ultimately give way to renewed negotiations.
In this issue of the Oil Viewsletter, we discuss: Why renewed diplomacy remains the market's base case despite escalating US-Iran hostilities.
Also:
US emergency oil buffers as well as commercial inventories are running low after months of SPR releases and a ramp-up in exports. That materially erodes the US’ ability to continue being the supplier of last resort if the Hormuz deadlock drags on.
Iran demonstrates it can widen the tanker war beyond the Strait of Hormuz but it needs an off-ramp as badly – or even more – than the US.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Exit of stranded Gulf barrels tilts prompt market into surplus (26 June 2026) - June 26, 2026
In our latest Executive Briefing Note:
Stranded Persian Gulf crude is pushing the prompt market into surplus as Brent, Dubai, Oman and Murban flip into front-end contango.
Hormuz is reopening, but drone attacks, mine clearance and competing Iranian-Omani transit rules continue to cloud the outlook.
We estimate 250-300 million barrels of Gulf crude could hit the market over the coming weeks. But this should not be mistaken for the new normal. The real test will come when empty tankers can re-enter the Gulf, load, and exit the Strait at full capacity without disruption.
Record Russian crude flows to India and weak Chinese buying are amplifying prompt bearishness.
Diesel markets remain tight, suggesting the weakness is confined to crude rather than broader oil fundamentals.
Plus: Iraq's OPEC warning, the UAE's post-OPEC strategy, and why Hormuz governance could become the next geopolitical flashpoint.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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