Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Prices rangebound after rising on renewed Hormuz stalemate - Aug. 12, 2026
Hormuz reopening more complex -- and fragile -- than it appears - Aug. 7, 2026
The difficult birth of a new interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept the oil market on tenterhooks throughout the week. The arrangement, apparently hammered out by Iran and Oman, was flagged as being in its final stages at the start of the week, but had yet to crystallise by Friday evening in Asia when we closed this Viewsletter.
The framework that has emerged in the public domain points to significant Iranian control over the Strait. It may have been politically expedient for Washington to portray the arrangement as one between Iran and Oman, distancing itself from the optics of having made major concessions to Tehran. But it is the US that will need to lift oil sanctions and the naval blockade against Iran to secure a reopening of the Strait.
Even if the interim deal is signed, the reopening may not be smooth. Washington could again push shipping towards the Omani corridor as it did under the failed July arrangement, or Tehran may conclude that the lifting of sanctions and the naval blockade falls short of what it was promised. Meanwhile, renewed Houthi-Saudi hostilities in the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea, or a further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, could spill over into the Hormuz and threaten the fragile truce.
The market is likely to navigate the unfolding situation by focusing on a sequence of increasingly important questions: Is there a deal? What commitments have the US and Iran actually made? How will the new transit protocol operate in practice? And once the Strait begins to reopen, do all parties honour their commitments, and how quickly does commercial shipping recover?
The agreement, if reached, will not mark the end of the crisis. It will merely be the starting point of what is likely to be a long, difficult and highly fragile road towards restoring confidence in one of the world's most important oil shipping corridors.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Exit of stranded Gulf barrels tilts prompt market into surplus (26 June 2026) - June 26, 2026
In our latest Executive Briefing Note:
Stranded Persian Gulf crude is pushing the prompt market into surplus as Brent, Dubai, Oman and Murban flip into front-end contango.
Hormuz is reopening, but drone attacks, mine clearance and competing Iranian-Omani transit rules continue to cloud the outlook.
We estimate 250-300 million barrels of Gulf crude could hit the market over the coming weeks. But this should not be mistaken for the new normal. The real test will come when empty tankers can re-enter the Gulf, load, and exit the Strait at full capacity without disruption.
Record Russian crude flows to India and weak Chinese buying are amplifying prompt bearishness.
Diesel markets remain tight, suggesting the weakness is confined to crude rather than broader oil fundamentals.
Plus: Iraq's OPEC warning, the UAE's post-OPEC strategy, and why Hormuz governance could become the next geopolitical flashpoint.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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