Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude jumps 8% as US moves to blockade Iran oil exports - April 13, 2026
Crude clings to Iran risk premium as talks set to drag on - Feb. 27, 2026
In this week’s Oil Viewsletter, we cut through the noise on US-Iran tensions and lay out what actually matters for oil markets:
Bottom line: geopolitics — not supply-demand balances — is setting the tape, and volatility is likely to persist while negotiations stretch into the coming weeks.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
Trump blinks, Iran sets the terms; markets misprice the truce - April 8, 2026
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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