CRUDE IN SIGHT

Crude slumps 7% after Trump says Israel, Iran agree ceasefire - June 24, 2025

  • Crude futures were continuing to weaken early Tuesday after settling 7% lower after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post late-Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire”, which was to be followed soon after by “an official end to the 12-day war.” But crude’s decline was cautious.
  • There was no official response from Israel as of this report, but a series of social media posts by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested conditionality around the ceasefire and indicated a different timeline for its start than what Trump had signalled.

ARCHIVES

OIL VIEWSLETTER

Crude convulses with uncertainty as Israel-Iran war drags on - June 20, 2025

Crude has priced in a $12-14/barrel geopolitical risk premium amid the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting market anxiety over Middle East oil flows, though stopping short of worst-case pricing. 

A potential US strike on Iran loomed large this week but was pulled back with President Donald Trump’s two-week detente offer, prompting Brent futures to retreat from fresh five-month highs above $78 as the week drew to a close. Prices may continue oscillating in the $72-78 range, swinging with each signal of escalation or de-escalation.

In this week’s report:

  • Trump’s two-week pause: Diplomatic opening or just a reset?
  • Freight rates spike despite uninterrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Market fundamentals diverge: OPEC sanguine on market balance, EIA sees surplus, IEA sees major overhang
  • OPEC+ buffer: Can the group offset any real disruption?

🔦 Spotlight: Israel-Iran Scenarios Mapped
We lay out three potential trajectoriesworst-casebase case, and best-case -- each with probability bands and expected crude price impact.

ARCHIVES

BULLS & BEARS

Mildly bearish near-term and second-half April - April 2, 2025

After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we concluded:

  • MILDLY BEARISH sentiment for the near-term and
  • MILDLY BEARISH sentiment for second-half April

ARCHIVES

OIL RADAR

OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024

Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.

We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”. 

A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand. 

But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario. 

Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.

Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.

What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!