Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude slides early Wed as Greenland jitters spur risk-off mode - Jan. 21, 2026
Crude's Iran shock fades, but the fuse still burns - Jan. 16, 2026
Iran was back in the driver’s seat this week. Brent completed a sharp round trip, surging from the low-$63s to a three-and-a-half-month high of $66.52 on fears of US strikes on Iran, before sliding back towards $63 after Trump signalled de-escalation. The pullback looks like a lull, not a resolution.
Venezuelan flows continued to normalise under US control. Vitol and Trafigura, operating under US authorisations, are routing Venezuelan crude into Caribbean storage and marketing it beyond the USGC.
The risk of additional US sanctions on Russian oil receded, at least for the time being. Momentum behind the proposed 500% secondary tariff bill on buyers of Russian oil has faded. Trump publicly blamed the Ukraine impasse on Zelensky while saying Putin was “ready to make a deal,” signalling renewed pressure on Kyiv rather than Moscow.
Brent continued to strengthen versus WTI and the sour markers. The WTI/Brent spread widened to -$4.68/bbl, the widest since May 2024 (excluding expiry effects). Brent remains supported by geopolitics and constrained Kazakh CPC loadings (~500 kb/d vs 1.65 mb/d planned), while WTI faces pressure from Venezuelan inflows.
China’s discounted barrel basket is in peril: No Venezuelan cargoes have headed to China so far this month. With Venezuelan flows cut and Russian/Iranian barrels also vulnerable to US pressure, China’s discounted crude basket looks exposed — reinforcing Beijing’s incentive to keep building strategic inventories.
Also in this report:
Trump’s foreign-policy agenda is now defined by a fraught troika of Iran, Venezuela and Ukraine – each carrying risks well beyond the usual notion of “challenges.” We assess the risks embedded in his moves across all three fronts, the options available, and the key variables that will outcomes.
Dec 2025: Neutral near-term, neutral second-half Dec - Dec. 5, 2025
Our latest Bulls & Bears report maintains a neutral stance for both the coming week and the second half of December, with crude expected to remain tightly rangebound around current levels.
Trump's Venezuela gambit: Big political risk, modest oil impact for now - Jan. 4, 2026
Trump took a bold risk in sending US troops into Caracas over the weekend, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores, and transferring them to the US to face longstanding criminal charges.
He may also have taken on an impossible task in pledging to “run” Venezuela until a safe and orderly transition to a democratically elected government is in place. Venezuela’s Supreme Court has ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to assume interim presidential powers, while Washington is racing to shape a workable interim setup. Pushback from Maduro’s allies cannot be ruled out.
While the political situation is likely to remain in flux for months, with plenty of scope for messy outcomes, the near-term oil market equation is less complicated. We expect crude to come face mild bearish pressure as Venezuelan production and exports, disrupted by US blockades in recent weeks, begin to normalise.
Longer-term, Trump has promised American companies will invest “billions of dollars” to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil sector. But even if everything goes to plan, meaningful gains are far down the line.
Read our quick analysis of the latest development and their implications for oil in this Executive Briefing Note.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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